{"id":71561,"date":"2026-01-13T17:31:18","date_gmt":"2026-01-13T22:31:18","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/bridgemi.com\/?p=71561"},"modified":"2026-01-13T17:31:24","modified_gmt":"2026-01-13T22:31:24","slug":"michigan-economic-forecast-meh-in-2026-with-a-chance-for-optimism","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/bridgemi.com\/business-watch\/michigan-economic-forecast-meh-in-2026-with-a-chance-for-optimism\/","title":{"rendered":"Michigan economic forecast: Meh in 2026, with a chance for optimism"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><strong>A new survey shows Michigan residents have mixed views on the economy<\/strong><\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>Michigan is still falling in national wage rankings and there is no consensus on how to fix it<\/strong><\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>Some business leaders say the economy remains unpredictable and tariff flip-flops don\u2019t help<\/strong><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity is-style-wide\"\/>\n\n\n\n<p>DETROIT \u2014 Michigan\u2019s economy is in for a so-so rollercoaster ride over the next few years, with enough moderate losses and mild gains to prompt modest optimism, according to new Ann Arbor research.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The \u201cmeh\u201d glimpse into the economy was unveiled Tuesday at the Detroit Economic Club, minutes before President Donald Trump offered a far more boosterish vision, telling business leaders that \u201cinflation is defeated\u201d and a \u201cTrump economic boom\u201d is underway.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u201cRight now, there\u2019s so much uncertainty,\u201d said Mary Buchzeiger, CEO of Auburn Hills-based auto supplier Lucerne International, who participated in a panel discussion at MotorCity Casino that preceded Trump\u2019s address.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>She added that she was a \u201clittle surprised\u201d by optimism expressed by residents in an annual poll by Baker Consulting Group of Ann Arbor. The survey found that a plurality of residents lean positively about their immediate future and the state\u2019s economy.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>But neither optimism nor pessimism topped 50% in the survey; a full quarter of the respondents were simply neutral.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The result is a \u201cmodest\u201d increase in optimism, researcher David Baker said.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>RELATED:<\/strong>\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><strong><a href=\"https:\/\/bridgemi.com\/business-watch\/report-aging-crisis-to-cause-michigan-to-lose-out-on-economic-boom\/\">Report: Aging crisis to cause Michigan to lose out on economic boom<\/a>\u00a0<\/strong><\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong><a href=\"https:\/\/bridgemi.com\/michigan-government\/as-donald-trump-returns-the-michigan-miracle-he-promised-remains-far-off\/\">As Donald Trump returns, the \u2018Michigan miracle\u2019 he promised remains far off<\/a>\u00a0<\/strong><\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/bridgemi.com\/business-watch\/next-michigan-governor-needs-laser-focus-on-prosperity-biz-group-says\"><strong>Next Michigan governor needs \u2018laser focus\u2019 on prosperity, biz group says<\/strong><\/a><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\"><\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p>Looking at Trump\u2019s policies, 55% of respondents said they are negative about what the federal moves mean for Michigan, despite Trump\u2019s bullishness that tariffs have helped the state and its auto makers.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The polling reflects many of the comments by the presenters, who noted Michigan\u2019s strengths while still calling out significant weaknesses.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Buchzeiger said many businesses are \u201cscared to act\u201d because they don\u2019t know if Trump is going to \u201cflip-flop\u201d on policies, such as <a href=\"https:\/\/www.forbes.com\/sites\/alisondurkee\/2025\/07\/14\/trump-taco-tracker-here-are-the-presidents-28-tariff-flip-flops\/\">frequent threats and modifications last year to his tariffs<\/a>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Yet research from panelist Gabriel Ehrlich, an economist at the University of Michigan, indicated <a href=\"https:\/\/lsa.umich.edu\/econ\/rsqe\/forecasts\/michigan-forecast.html\">in November <\/a>that Trump\u2019s tariffs will have a \u201cstrong protective\u201d effect on the US auto industry.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Still, Ehrlich said Michigan can expect a \u201csoft patch\u201d of employment this year that should recover in 2027.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>A longer term concern \u2014 one mentioned over years by think tanks like <a href=\"https:\/\/bridgemi.com\/business-watch\/next-michigan-governor-needs-laser-focus-on-prosperity-biz-group-says\/\">Business Leaders for Michigan <\/a>and <a href=\"https:\/\/michiganfuture.org\/author\/lou\/\">Michigan Future Inc. <\/a>\u2014remains Michigan\u2019s eroding wages.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u201cMichigan has fallen behind the rest of the states in wages,\u201d Ehrlich said, noting that in 35 years, the state has gone from wages that were 10% above the national average to 4% below it.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Panelist Quentin Messer Jr., CEO of the Michigan Economic Development Corporation, said Michigan is determining how it wants to grow economically.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Lawmakers no longer have consensus cash-for-jobs incentives, with the <a href=\"https:\/\/bridgemi.com\/business-watch\/michigan-legislators-kill-gretchen-whitmers-2b-cash-for-jobs-program\/\">Legislature recently defunding<\/a> the large-scale spending allowed by the Strategic Outreach and Attraction Reserve (SOAR) fund.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Investigations by Bridge Michigan on the state\u2019s incentive investments found they have produced only one-quarter of promised jobs and half of those pay less than the state\u2019s median wage.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>President Donald Trump says the economy is going gangbusters, but business leaders and a new poll takes a more lackluster view.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":966,"featured_media":71565,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"newspack_ads_suppress_ads":false,"newspack_popups_has_disabled_popups":false,"newspack_sponsor_sponsorship_scope":"","newspack_sponsor_native_byline_display":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_native_category_display":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_underwriter_style":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_underwriter_placement":"inherit","inline_featured_image":false,"apple_news_api_created_at":"2026-01-13T22:31:23Z","apple_news_api_id":"08996f9f-2de2-42db-bc67-affc7d44c037","apple_news_api_modified_at":"2026-01-13T22:31:23Z","apple_news_api_revision":"AAAAAAAAAAD\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/w==","apple_news_api_share_url":"https:\/\/apple.news\/ACJlvny3iQtu8Z6_8fUTANw","apple_news_cover_media_provider":"image","apple_news_coverimage":0,"apple_news_coverimage_caption":"","apple_news_cover_video_id":0,"apple_news_cover_video_url":"","apple_news_cover_embedwebvideo_url":"","apple_news_is_hidden":"","apple_news_is_paid":"","apple_news_is_preview":"","apple_news_is_sponsored":"","apple_news_maturity_rating":"","apple_news_metadata":"\"\"","apple_news_pullquote":"","apple_news_pullquote_position":"","apple_news_slug":"","apple_news_sections":[],"apple_news_suppress_video_url":false,"apple_news_use_image_component":false,"_newspack_byline_active":false,"_newspack_byline":"","newspack_featured_image_position":"","newspack_post_subtitle":"","newspack_article_summary_title":"Overview:","newspack_article_summary":"","newspack_hide_updated_date":false,"newspack_show_updated_date":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"","jetpack_publicize_feature_enabled":true,"jetpack_social_post_already_shared":true,"jetpack_social_options":{"image_generator_settings":{"template":"highway","default_image_id":0,"font":"","enabled":false},"version":2},"_wpas_customize_per_network":false},"categories":[2438],"tags":[],"newspack_spnsrs_tax":[],"coauthors":[2474],"class_list":["post-71561","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-business-watch","entry"],"apple_news_notices":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- 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Paula came to Bridge in 2020 after several years at MLive.com, where she covered the state on both business and environmental teams. Prior to that, she was editor of the Ann Arbor News and news director of online startup AnnArbor,com, and also focused on business news as an editor and reporter at Michigan Business Review. Born and raised in metro Detroit, Paula moved to Ann Arbor to attend the University of Michigan, and has lived in the city for 20 years with her husband, who grew up in their neighborhood. Paula also regularly visits East Lansing and Grand Rapids to visit her college-aged children. 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